07-08 Predictions, Part 4

With just over two weeks to go until some exhibition games, today I'll wrap up my WCHA pre-season predictions and take a stab at some actual standings.


North Dakota

After struggling in the first half of the 06/07 season, the Sioux found themselves in the second half, claimed 3rd place in the league, and made it to the Frozen Four, before falling to Boston College in the semi-final.

Toews and Lee are gone, and Porter graduated, but otherwise North Dakota returns a strong team. Oshie and Duncan are back for their junior seasons, and a big question is just how much they will be able to produce this year without Toews on their line.

Defensively, even with the loss of Lee, the Sioux remain strong. Derrick LaPoint is a big recruit who is expected to help shore up Lee’s departure.

The Sioux also return netminder Philippe Lamoureux, who isn’t an amazing goalie. Sometimes his emotions get in the way, but he does have a lot of playing experience and should be consistent enough to post reasonably solid numbers, particularly with North Dakota’s defense in front of him. How far “reasonably solid” will carry them into the playoffs remains to be seen, but it’s hard to argue with last season’s Frozen Four appearance.

Overall, North Dakota looks like the pre-season favorite, as they start the year with the fewest number of concerns, a strong group of returning players, and a good freshman class.

Prediction: Somewhere between 1st and 3rd in the league.

St. Cloud State

After a very strong 06-07 regular season and 2^nd place finish in the WCHA, St. Cloud came crashing back to earth following another first-round exit in the NCAAs.

Goepfert is gone, which will hurt quite a bit. Jase Weslosky seems capable of filling the goaltending role after six starts last season that included a shutout of Clarkson in November (though he did have a couple of shaky games in the second half).

Offensively, Gordon and Kronick are gone (which will probably take a bite out of SCSU’s power play unit), but Lasch, Nodl, Dey and Swanson all remain. Recruits such as Garrett Roe and Aaron Marvin are expected to help fill the gaps. Defensively, St. Cloud lost three seniors, but they have at least one solid incoming freshman.

Overall, it’s hard to say just how SCSU will fare this season. The scoring punch, for the most part, is still there and I’m sure the defense will iron itself out; the questions are whether or not Weslosky can fill Goepfert’s large shoes, and how much losing Gordon and Kronick will cost them in terms of leadership and power play prowess. Regardless, this year’s SCSU team does not look quite like last year’s (at least on paper).

Prediction: Somewhere between 3^th and 6^th in the league.

Minnesota

It’s business as usual for Minnesota after claiming a second straight league title, and making their 7^th straight NCAA appearance last season, before ultimately falling to North Dakota in the West Regional title game.

The Gophers lose goalie Kellen Briggs and defenseman Mike Vannelli to graduation, but retain top forwards Kyle Okposo, Jay Barriball and Blake Wheeler. With high-quality forward prospects like Drew Fisher and Patrick White coming in this fall, it seems Minnesota shouldn’t have a problem with scoring.

Defensively, the Gophers take a hit. Aside form Vannelli, they also lost Erik Johnson and Alex Goligoski to the pro ranks. The loss of Goli is expected to hurt a lot at both the talent and leadership/experience levels, but Minnesota is preparing to reload as usual. How quickly the freshmen defensemen will adjust to the college game is uncertain.

Another big question is, can Jeff Frazee become the everyday goalie the Gophers need him to be? It’s no secret that he’s prone to giving up weak goals or having an off night more often than most starters. In 20 starts last season, he gave up four or more goals on four occasions and three or more goals on eight occasions. The Gophers’ significant losses on the blue line could leave Frazee more exposed than usual, at least for the first half of the season.

Overall, it looks like the Gophers have some question marks on defense (although I’m sure Don Lucia recruited d-men who will quickly adopt his system), and goaltending could become an issue if Frazee can’t keep his head on straight. Still, with the sheer amount of talent on offense, they should be able to outshoot and outscore just about anyone if they put their minds to it.

Prediction: Somewhere between 1^st and 3^rd in the league.

Standings

I realize it's ridiculously early to be doing this, but hey - so does everyone else.


1. North Dakota

The most complete team. Experience and talent in every position.

2. Minnesota

Lots of people say they are too young on defense, but let's be honest - they are the Gophers. They have strong recruits and will adapt quickly, I'm sure. Their offensive depth is top-notch and I'm sure Frazee will be fine, in spite of the occasional meltdown.

3. St. Cloud State

The returning offense is pretty strong, as are a few of their recruited forwards. Weslosky slipped a bit at the end of the season, but when you don't see ice time for a month and half, and then face a blistering North Dakota offense, you'll have that. Their defense is weaker this season, but the really tough part of their schedule isn't until the second-half, so new d-men will have some time to adapt. Could slip if they don't win enough games in the first-half of the season.

4. Michigan Tech

On paper, Tech returns almost all of the defense that propelled them to last year's results, plus both of their goalies. With a decent recruiting class, the question is - who will step into the leadership roles left behind by Helminen, Batovanja, and Skworchinski? The Huskies' schedule is pretty well-balanced, so they could get burned if they don't find their legs quickly.

5. Wisconsin

Wisconsin lost a ton of experience to graduation and early departures, but they did have the nation's top recruiting class. With Shane Connelly seemingly ready to start in goal, the question will be - who besides Kyle Turris will score for the Badgers? Could jump in the standings with enough depth on offense.

6. Colorado College

I considered placing CC higher, until it was announced that Jimmy Kilpatrick will be out until Thanksgiving to recover from surgery. Since they will be missing the guy who appears to be their top playmaker for the majority of the first-half, they will be more vulnerable. With a large question mark in goal, CC will need to rely on their defense heavily, and hope someone can fill Kilpatrick's skates while he is out. A first-half schedule that includes Minnesota, New Hampshire and North Dakota in their first six games, plus St. Cloud State in December could make for a rough start.

7. Denver

The Pioneers are too thin on defense. Additionally, beyond their top 3 scorers, there is a sharp drop in offensive depth. As a goaltender, Mannino is pretty good and experienced, but hasn't been able to replicate his freshman year performance. Things could get harder without enough WCHA-caliber defensemen in front of him.

8. Minnesota State-Mankato

Now that their top goaltender has recovered from an injury, he will need to work his way back into top form for the Mavericks to have a chance at moving up in the world. Without Steve Wagner and Travis Morin to lead MSU-M, they will need to rely on players like Kalinski and Berge to step into those roles.

9. Alaska-Anchorage

With a large class containing some surprisingly decent recruits, it seems that Dave Shyiak could be laying the foundations for the Seawolves. They've got a ways to go however, and this year they will need to find players into step into the voids left by Jay Beagle and Justin Borune. Still, they should be good enough to avoid rock bottom.

10. Minnesota-Duluth

No Raymond (huge loss), No Niskanen (significant loss), thin on defense, big question mark in goal. Things do not look good in Bulldog land.



Of course, injuries and under/over performance will likely come into play. I'd say most of these teams could end up +/- 2 places outside of these predictions.

Pre-Season Predictions: Part 3

Next up, Denver and CC...

Colorado College

Last season, CC finished 5^th place in the WCHA by two points and just missed the NCAAs.

Up front, the Tigers lose Polich and Cox. Perhaps a much bigger blow is that they will be without Kilpatrick until at least Thanksgiving, which may negatively impact their early season as he seems to be an important leader and playmaker. However, their other top three scorers are all back and they will gain two strong recruits in Steve Schultz and Tyler Johnson. Back on defense Lee Sweatt is gone, but there’s still enough depth and experience for CC to get by.

The big question will be goaltending. Zaba has graduated, and backup Drew O’Connell doesn’t have much to offer in the way of statistics or big game experience. He will likely be competing for the starting job with incoming freshman Richard Bachman.

If the Tigers can hammer out their goaltending issues early on, they could be pretty good this year. Assuming they get past a seemingly-suicidal opening stretch against Minnesota, New Hampshire and North Dakota with a 3-3 or even 2-4 record, they will be a team to keep an eye on.

Prediction: Somewhere between 4^th and 6^th in the league.

Denver

Denver completed the 06-07 season with a narrow claim to 4^th place in the league and just missed out on the NCAA tourney following a Wisconsin upset in the first-round of the WCHA playoffs.

The good news for the Pioneers is that even though Dingle left early, Trotter, Rakhshani, and Ruegsegger are all back for their sophomore seasons, and talented forwards like Tyler Bozak and Jesse Martin are on the way in. The bad news is that Denver suffers from a lack of depth on the blue line.

The Pioneers will be relying upon Mannino heavily in goal this season, and he has plenty of experience, though he has been unable to repeat his strong freshmen year performance when he helped Denver win a national championship.

DU’s predicament is similar to St. Cloud’s – the offensive prowess is there, so if the defense Denver has can get the job done and Mannino plays well, they should have a decent season. If Mannino gets left out to dry too much, there’s no telling what might happen. Bottom line – it’s probably something of a rebuilding year at Magness.

Prediction: Somewhere between 4^th and 7^th in the league.

Part 4 will conclude this pre-season analysis sometime next week, and I will also take a stab at actually ranking the teams.

Moving On...

Next on my set of predictions are the two teams who rounded out the bottom half of the 06-07 WCHA standings - Wisconsin and Michigan Tech. My write-up on MTU is a bit longer, seeing as how I am a Tech fan, and so my knowledge about them is more concrete.

Wisconsin

The Badgers are coming off of a down year, claiming 7^th place in the WCHA just one season after winning the 2006 National Championship.

One thing the Badgers can probably count on is goaltending. Brian Elliott is gone, but Shane Connelly looks ready to start after shutting out 3 opponents in the seven games he played last season.

Offensively, UW lost a fair bit of experience to graduation and an early departure. Senior forwards Andrew Joudrey, Jake Dowell, and Ross Carlson all graduated after 20+ point seasons last year, and sophomore Jack Skille departed for the pros. The good news for the Badger offense is that their incoming class contains the #3 overall pick of the NHL draft in Kyle Turris, as well as Josh Turnbull and Sean Dolan.

On the defensive side of the puck, Wisconsin lost three experienced defensemen, notably junior Joe Piskula who departed early for the pro ranks. The biggest incoming d-man will likely be Ryan McDonagh, although Brendan Smith was also taken in the first round back in June.

Overall, the Badgers are a pretty young team this season, and will probably start off a bit slow. However I would be surprised if they didn’t gather some steam as the year wears on, and by the end of the season I expect that they will be a team nobody wants to face during the league playoffs.

Prediction: Somewhere between 3^rd and 6^th in the league.

Michigan Tech

The Huskies are coming off of a surprising 06-07 campaign which saw them earn their first winning season in 15 years, and their first trip to the WCHA Final Five since 1996.

A strong point for Tech this season will be goaltending. Michael-Lee Teslak and Rob Nolan are both good goalies and they will enjoy a solid defense in front of them. They will be competing for playing time, and with some room at the top after the departures of Schneider, Curry, and Elliott, I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one of them sitting among the country’s Top 5 netminders for most of the season.

Some people have argued that their season save percentages (91.6% for Teslak, 91.0% for Nolan) are merely average. Keep in mind that Tech suffered a mid-season slump, because if you look at the second half of the season (when Teslak emerged as the starter and Tech made their run), beginning with the Friday game against Bemidji up until the loss to Wisconsin at the Final Five (13 starts), Teslak posted a 93.03% SV. He also posted four shutouts on the season (two in the second half); I don’t consider those average stats. Having watched both of them in action many times, when either one of them is playing well, he is tough to beat.

On offense, MTU needed a shot in the arm, which was painfully obvious after so many one-goal losses and narrow victories last season. Key returning players will be last year’s top two point-getters Peter Rouleau (7-23-30) and Tyler Shelast (15-9-24). Jamie Russell and his crew of assistants seemed to have recruited an excellent class which included third-round draftee Casey Pierro-Zabotel (‘CPZ’ for short). Unfortunately, CPZ was unable to qualify academically on his first try (although Russell reports that he was very, very close), so he will continue to play with Merritt of the BCHL until he can retake his exams in October, and hopefully join the Huskies in December, in time for the series against Northern Michigan.

Until then, MTU can still look forward to Eric Kattelus, who racked up 39 points with Indiana of the USHL last season and was second on his team in PPG (an area in which Tech really needs improvement). There is also Bennett Royer, who led the Calgary Canucks of the AJHL with 76 points (including 18 PPG), and averaged almost 1.5 points per game. Finally, there is Jordan Baker, who was second in scoring for the Olds Grizzlies of the AJHL, with 50 points (including 20 PPG). Jordan sustained a shoulder injury later in the season and missed the team’s last 15 or so games, but should be healed in time for the start of practices at Tech.

Defensively, the Huskies lost senior Lars Helminen to graduation. While Lars was an important part of the team and his leadership will be missed, the rest of the defensive core remains, which will go a long way towards sustaining the performance Tech showed in the second half of last season. The Huskies have just one incoming defenseman, but Deron Cousens is expected to perform well as an offensive d-man after compiling 51 points last season with Penticton of the BCHL, including 9 PPG and 2 shorties. Hopefully, he can help fill Lars’ shoes down the line.

Tech will be looking for home ice this year after narrowly missing it last season, and I anticipate that we will get it by a hair. As for making the NCAA tourney, it’s too early to say for certain whether or not it will happen. How will the defensemen fare without Lars to lead them? How much grit will the team show without Batty to fire them up? Can any upperclassmen step in and fill their shoes this year? Can Teslak and/or Nolan play for a whole season like they did at their peaks last year? The answers to these questions will likely determine how far Tech goes this season.

Prediction: Somewhere between 4^th and 7^th in the league.

September Arrives...

With just a little over a month until the hockey Huskies take the ice and begin another season, I feel it's now safe to start speculating about each WCHA team's chances this season. All of the major early departures are likely public by now, and the status of almost all recruiting classes is known. That said, I'll go ahead and post my first three predictions tonight.


Minnesota-Duluth

The Bulldogs claimed 9^th place in the WCHA last season.

With the loss of senior goalie Josh Johnson, Duluth is left with sophomore Alex Stalock in the net, who had some trouble adjusting to college play and posted 3.34 GAA and an .881 SV% in 23 games his freshman season. They are also bringing a freshman by the name of Kenny Rieter into the mix, who played his junior hockey in the NAHL. Between the inconsistent Stalock and a raw, untested freshman, it seems like Duluth’s goaltending situation could be unstable.

More woes abound in front of the net, where both of UMD’s top point-getters, forward Mason Raymond and defenseman Matt Niskanen, decided to forego their final two years of eligibility and turn pro. The Bulldogs also lost top goal-scorer Bryan McGregor and two experienced defensemen to graduation, leaving them with just two 20+ point players returning, and a lot of shoes to fill.

On the recruiting front, UMD seems to have found some potential goal-scorers in Justin Fontaine, Kyle Schmidt and Rob Bordson, but will they be able to contribute much as freshmen and if so, how much?

Between the goaltending questions and a big loss of scoring punch and leadership, I’m afraid the Bulldogs and their fans are in for a long season. Stalock needs to prove that he is a competent, everyday goaltender, upperclassmen need to fill leadership roles, and freshmen must start producing quickly if Duluth is to make any progress this season.

Prediction: Somewhere between 8^th and 10^th in the league.

Alaska-Anchorage

The Seawolves claimed 10^th place in the WCHA last season.

After an interesting first half which included a home sweep of North Dakota and splits with Wisconsin and Colorado College, everything seemed to go downhill for the Seawolves after Christmas.

Up front, Bourne graduated and Beagle moved on. Back on the blue line, Anderson graduated. In goal, Lawson moved on (probably a good thing for both him and UAA).

Incoming recruits include Chris Rengert, Tommy Grant, Winston Daychief, and Nick Haddad on offense, Jeff Carlson on defense, and Matt Gordon between the pipes.

Overall, it could be an interesting year for the Seawolves provided they can play some defense, and get decent goaltending out of either Olthuis or Gordon. Whether or not that can happen remains to be seen.

Prediction: Somewhere between 8^th and 10^th in the league.

Minnesota State-Mankato

The Mavericks claimed 8th place in the WCHA last season.

The story of 06-07 seemed to be goaltending and penalties. The Mavs were the most penalized team in the league, and both of their starting goalies suffered injuries. Both Tormey and Zacharias should be fully healed in time for the start of the 07-08 campaign, however it seems that they will have their work cut out for them.

On offense, losing Morin to graduation will be tough, but the Mavs retain Hanson, Kalinski and Berge, all of whom are important elements of MSUM’s power play. Kalinski is also particularly adept at scoring shorties.

On the blue line, MSUM suffers a bit from the early departure of Wagner and the graduation of two seniors, but they pick up a couple of decent-looking freshmen.

Similar to St. Cloud, it’s tough to predict exactly where this team will wind up, but I’d say that they have the potential to be a force in the bottom half of the league, and could surprise a higher seed in the WCHA playoffs come March. They need to work on reducing their penalty minutes though.

Prediction: Somewhere between 7th and 9th in the league.


I'll post two more predictions later this week.